Online Poker Games

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, I would like to state a few things (you may consider them tips) and then give an excellent example to back up the claims I am about to make. First of all, if you want to make a profit at your horse racing handicapping, some longshots are good bets. Secondly, all longshots and favorites are not created equally. Third, in order to make a profit at the races, you have to have a good betting strategy, a good system, and think for yourself. That not only means going against the crowd, but also going against published data.

Here is an example and you may use the methodology as part of a system for betting. At Churchill Downs on Wednesday, June 18, 2008, the first race was a $15,000 claiming event for three year olds and upward at a distance of 6 furlongs. The favorite, at 8-5 odds was the #3 Hollywood Berti, a lightly raced three year old gelding who was shipping in from Arlington Park where he had a race after a previous race at Keeneland and races at Turf Paradise (all those tracks have synthetic surfaces). The #3 had won at the distance of 6 furlongs and showed a good turn of early speed, but had never raced on natural dirt.

So, in other words, the favorite had never raced on the track or won on the track. He showed some good works on the track but good works, as we all know, are not the same thing as real races. This is the kind of situation that makes horse racing handicapping so much fun and so profitable at times. Hollywood Berti, in my opinion, was a false favorite. Though he was a nice looking horse, I didn’t think he was worth such a short price (another tip – don’t take less than 2-1 odds if you want to make money at this game). He hadn’t proven how he would handle the dirt surface and also hadn’t won at that track. Furthermore, he had just failed in a $15,000 claimer at Arlington Park. While an open claimer is more classy than a claimer for non winners in many cases, I didn’t see it as that much of a class drop and his third place finish did not impress me.

I was using an Equibase program for my handicapping. I am not disparaging Equibase. They are a good company and make good products, but they are not infallible and here is why you have to think for yourself and question everything. The class rating that Equibase assigned to the #1, Time to Getit, was 64. Of the six starters in the race, that was the lowest class rating. A look at Time to Getit’s past performances made me question that low class rating and his lines made me sit up and take notice. He had just raced at Churchill Downs in a $30,000 claimer for nw-3, at a distance of a mile and a sixteenth. He had raced within a length of the leader throughout much of the race, but stopped while going three wide and finished 6th. But as we all know, pace plays an important part in racing and winning and Time to Getit had shown some good speed for 6 furlongs against tougher horses over the same surface he was racing on in this race.

He had the very capable Jamie Theriot in the irons, who incidentally, went on to win 5 races on that program. Going a shorter distance and dropping in class, after putting up a good performance, made me think the #1 was a pretty classy horse. The real clincher that made me back him at the window was that he was the biggest longshot at 11-1 odds. Now think about those two horses and consider your betting strategy for a minute. The unproven favorite is at 8-5 while another horse who has actually shown some speed and an ability to handle the surface is at 11-1. Which is the better bet? Maybe the crowd was looking at that Equibase class rating or some other numbers that appealed to them, but for me, the fact that the horse was dropping in class and shortening up after setting good fractions was enough to go against the crowd.

#1 Time to Getit, won and paid $24.60 to win. The #3 Hollywood Berti, didn’t handle the surface well. His line reads, “shuffled back start.” He finished last and may not have handled the surface or maybe he really did get in trouble at the beginning of the race. I will have to see him race on natural dirt and win before I back him on that surface.

Here’s the point. Think for yourself and decide for yourself who the class of the race is and look for good odds on a classy horse when the favorite is suspect. Don’t settle for short odds on any horse. Any horse can be beaten. Use a systematic approach and good betting strategy to win and you will be successful with your horse racing handicapping.