Posts Tagged ‘Valid Reason’

How To Handicap Speed In Horse Racing – How To Use The Beyer Speed Rating In 2008



The Beyer speed rating is one of the most practical ways that handicapper should begin their journey to picking the correct horse. The speed of a horse can alter the race on how fast it takes the lead or when it decides to turn it on the stretch. The speed rating was created by Andrew Beyer and although it gives us a numerical representation of a horse’s performance based on the final time of the track that it ran on. The higher the speed figure the better the performance, sounds simple right? If one could go to the track and go large on the ones with the highest speed ratings all the time their would be no need for this website.

When looking at ratings and you see a horse who regularly earns figures int the 50′s and is meeting a handful of runners always in the 70′s we can usually throw this horse out. This just stands out to us that the horse is in a class below the horses its up against. Its not the actual speed rating that makes the difference its how it aquired it that speed rating. You are trying to handicap the true speed of the horse, this is done by observing past speeds that stay around the same range. Also a true one can be determined by a horse that goes wire to wire with no true challengers.

You also have to be aware of the horse that had a poor speed rating last time out but has been stellar in the previous ones. There could be a valid reason for this poor speed rating. These horses can sometimes avoid betting traffic and you can get some decent odds on a horse that wins the race easily. Look for the circumstances that offer the best value. Unfortunately factors play in the speed rating such as track bias, troubled trips, trainer conditioning, post position, trainer intent and etc… Don’t let that discourage you the more you know of those the more accurate you will be with speed ratings. These ratings are basically something to measure one horse to another against to see which one is superior. The problem with speed ratings is they are only fairly accurate for comparison if the same conditions were present that day with the same distance.

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There have been numerous patterns studied to get a commonality among speed ratings so in this modern age you can use those to your advantage in handicapping horseracing. Here is a very simple approach that you can apply

* Do this for each horse in the program, the more recent the races the better the prediction of speed the horse will run

* Take the horses in the field and average their two best speed ratings at today’s distance. (because distance plays a huge factor in the speed of a horse)

*make note if the races are at the same track that is running today. If you can compare it against a horse that ran the same track you have straight up speed ratings and pick the one that is higher.

* After this is done for each horse I like to make a note of the top 3 and continue with my handicapping. This give you a good solid use for the beyer system in the modern age. This is very simple in its process but very effective and gives you a solid number to go off of.

As you can see Speed rating can be played by a variety of ways. If you have horses that you are comparing actual Beyer speed ratings to. You want to look for if they ran at the same distance and the same track under the same conditions then you have a true comparison. You can compare these horses heads up and pick the speed rating that is higher.

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What I like to do is I continue to look for overlays for why they had a great trip or a bad one. If the horse just had a bad outing that is uncharacteristic of him then you can throw that particular race out that others are still looking at. I always throw horses out that have their general speed rating a lot lower than the rest. Incorporate this simple formula while looking at the speed rating and make sure this is one of the several bullets in your gun.